The Export Import Bank of India on Thursday said it expects a 3.3 per cent growth in the country's overall merchandise exports to USD 113.7 billion in the June quarter. The non-oil exports are forecast to grow 10.9 per cent to USD 99.2 billion during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, an official statement said.
The outlook is, however, subject to risks of global tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, rising geo-economic fragmentation and persisting geo-political tensions, the bank said.
"Positive growth in India's exports could be as a result of expected revival in manufacturing activity, conclusion of export orders, favourable prospects of current trade negotiations, and expected continued accommodative stance in India," the bank said.
It added that the growth in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports, are likely to continue in second quarter of the current financial year.
The bank said it has developed an in-house model to generate an export leading index for India to track and forecast the movement in India's exports on a quarterly basis.
The ELI gauges the outlook for the country's exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country, it said.
The outlook is, however, subject to risks of global tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, rising geo-economic fragmentation and persisting geo-political tensions, the bank said.
"Positive growth in India's exports could be as a result of expected revival in manufacturing activity, conclusion of export orders, favourable prospects of current trade negotiations, and expected continued accommodative stance in India," the bank said.
It added that the growth in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports, are likely to continue in second quarter of the current financial year.
The bank said it has developed an in-house model to generate an export leading index for India to track and forecast the movement in India's exports on a quarterly basis.
The ELI gauges the outlook for the country's exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country, it said.
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