Russa has suffered around a million casualties since invading Ukraine, with warmonger in the dark about the carnage his forces suffer.
Western sources believe Putin thinks he is winning because his generals do not give him a clear picture, instead giving him an "optimistic" picture of what is happening. Russia's civilian economy is creaking after three years of war, with oil income "well below" what the despot needs to fund his war machine, analysts believe.
It comes amid fears that Putin is preparing a fresh offensive on after launching its most intense drone attack since the full-scale invasion in 2022. The Russian President thinks he is winning despite the economic misery citizens are enduring, and is insisting on "completely unreasonable" terms to end the war, intelligence chiefs believe.
But in reality he is making "incremental" gains, with experts convinced Putin's forces have lost one million killed and wounded troops in three years. And where once Kremlin forces had up to 15 times more artillery than Ukraine, the ratio has slipped to around two-to-one, western sources believe.
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It means Putin must decide whether to put the country onto a purely wartime economy. Western leaders are optimistic that further sanctions will force to the negotiating table "in due course".
Last week led calls for European leaders to turn the screws on Russia. He told delegations at the European Political Community summit that Putin must "pay the price for dodging peace".
Western powers want to bring in further measures to cut Kremlin revenues from oil and gas, which is the main source of tax income. Russia's inflation rate was over 10% last month(APR), piling misery on millions of citizens.
But Putin shows no signs of letting up. On Saturday night it launched its most intense drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the invasion in 2022, firing 273 exploding drones and decoys. Ukrainian President attended the inauguration of Pope Leo XIV on Sunday, where he shook hands with US Vice President JD Vance.
It was their first meeting since an ugly spat in the Oval Office in February. Western sources believe Mr Vance's boss, President , is "sincere" in his desire to end the war.
Mr Trump has called for a face-to-face meeting with Putin, who refused to attend peace negotiations in Istanbul last week. On Friday the talks between Russian and Ukrainian forces ended after just two hours.
Vladimir Medinsky, who is heading Putin's team, said Russia will continue fighting for as long as it takes, it was reported. He is said to have told the Ukrainians: "We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”
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